GL Analysis – Netanyahu will likely be the next Prime Minister

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AFP

Update: 7:00 PM – The polls have been revised and now show Netanyahu with a path to victory. He will likely get more seats than Gantz as well.

4:30 PM Let’s breakdown the numbers. Keep in mind 3 things.

  • These are based on exit polls which are not that accurate
  • IDF votes were not included in numbers, they generally vote right wing.
  • Almost nothing is set in stone. Any small party can make a deal with Likud or White and Blue to join, but there are more ‘natural partners’ that will likely join their partner.

Here are the 3 exit polls – we will go through each one.

First poll breakdown: Likud – Union of right parties – UTJ – Shas – Kulanu – Yisroel Beitanu = 64. Bibi wins. In this scenario, Bennet remains at 0 – below the threshold – which can change after adding soldiers votes in.

Second Poll breakdown: Likud – Union of right parties – UTJ – Shas – Kulanu – Yisroel Beitanu = 60. A scenario that has never happened and will be fascinating to see how it would turn out. In this scenario, Bennet remains at 0 – below the threshold – which can change after adding soldiers votes in.

Third poll breakdown: Likud – Union of right parties – UTJ – Shas – Kulanu – Yisroel Beitanu – New right = 66. This poll has Bennet getting 4 seats.

As explained, this analysis includes Kulanu and Avigdor Leiberman’s Yisroel Beitanu party. They are natural allies to Netanyahu – but any ‘good deal’ from Gantz could change loyalties. Kulanu’s Kahlon has previously said he will support Netanyahu even with charges filed against Bibi. In 2/3 scenarios, Netanyahu can even afford to lose Lieberman and will still have a majority.

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